According to the global consulting company Ipsos Consulting, due to the outbreak of African swine fever, Vietnam will face a pork deficit of 500,000 tons from July 2019 to February 2020.

The deficit will be equivalent to 20 percent of Vietnam’s total pork demand from July through Tet lunar New Year, which falls on February 2020, the company said.

Vietnam culled 2.6 million pigs as a result of an incurable disease that erupted in 60 of the 63 provinces and cities of the country. As of June, the total number of sows in the country is estimated to have decreased by 30 percent compared to the same period last year.

The report says that small livestock farms were most affected due to the lack of preventive measures and biosafety.

The demand for pork is declining as people temporarily reduce their consumption. Many families, restaurants, and food producers have also replaced pork in their diets and menus with poultry and other livestock.

Although demand will continue to fall, supply will fall even more. As a result, four distinct trends will appear on the market: an increase in pork imports and pork prices, as well as an increase in demand for branded pork and other types of meat.

According to Vietnam Customs, Ho Chi Minh City imported four times as much pork in the first six months compared to the same period last year. Enterprises spent about $ 7 million on imports, about 4,000 tons of which is frozen pork.

It was mainly products from the USA, Canada, Spain, Germany and Poland. The increase in imports, as well as the fact that households do not dare to re-livestock, will continue to push pork prices and influence the consumer price index from today until the first months of 2020, Vietnamese customs said.